NEW YORK, Jan. 18, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The China electric bus market size is forecasted to cross 354,000 units by 2025, at a significant growth rate. The boost in demand for electric bus is driven by declining battery costs, improving operational efficiencies, and increasing replacement of old conventional buses with new electric ones.
The Chinese electric bus market is segmented on the basis of type, which includes parallel hybrid bus, pure electric bus, series parallel hybrid bus, and series hybrid bus. Pure electric bus is estimated to hold close to 86% share in the Chinese market in 2017. Pure electric bus is further expected to continue to account for a significant share in sales during the forecast period driven by increasing government support. On the basis of length, electric bus is segmented into three categories, namely, 10m. 8m – 10m, and >10m length buses together accounted for close to two-third of the total electric bus sales in the country in 2017.
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As battery accounts for significant share of electric bus manufacturing cost, declining Li-ion battery prices would help bus companies to keep the prices under check. Moreover, increasing battery production capacity would further lower battery prices in China during the forecast period. As in the case of internal combustion engine, whose costs have reduced with decades of experience, the electric vehicle’s cost too would continue to fall during the forecast period with industry experience, operational efficiencies, and economies of scale, thus benefiting the Chinese electric bus market during the forecast period.
China has a few million buses/coaches accumulated in the last decade, out of which, around one-third of the buses are more than five years old. These old conventional buses are expected to be replaced by new electric ones during the forecast period. Large fleet of old conventional buses in the country provides considerable opportunity for electric bus sales in the country. Also, more buses would become old during the forecast period, thus further benefiting the Chinese electric bus market.
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Reduction in subsidies have increased the upfront cost of electric buses as compared to conventional buses. Due to this, the demand for electric buses is likely to suffer in the next few years, especially from the private segment which is highly price-sensitive. Moreover, OEMs and bus manufacturers which enjoyed considerable profit margins in the historic period, would now need to cut profits to maintain reasonable retail price for electric buses.
Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co. Ltd. was the leading player in the Chinese electric bus market in 2016, accounting for more than one-fourth of the total sales, followed by Higer Bus Company Limited and Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co. Ltd., each accounting for more than 10% of the total sales. Other key players in the Chinese electric bus market include Dongfeng Motor Corporation, King Long United Automotive Industry Co. Ltd., Anhui Ankai Automobile Co. Ltd., Liaoning Huanghai Automobile Import & Export Co. Ltd., Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Co. Ltd., and BYD Company Limited.
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Global Electric Bus Market
Global electric bus market to witness a CAGR of 33.5% during 2017 – 2025, the study suggests that low existing penetration of electric buses in the global fleet is the key reason for high growth rate of this market. The policy makers of various countries are focusing on developing public transit infrastructure with no or low pollution to tackle the air pollutant emissions, mainly in the densely-populated cities and mega-cities. This has been impelling the bus owners, including transit agencies, to make their fleet electric. This is consequently propelling the electric bus demand globally.
U.S. Electric Bus Market
The demand for electric buses in the U.S. has augmented dramatically over the last decade. More than 47,000 electric buses are plying on the country’s roads and it has a target to reach 1 million by 2025. The transit agencies in the U.S. are reflecting their interest in zero emission buses. The major transit agencies including metropolitan transportation authority (MTA), Chicago transit authority (CTA), Los Angeles county metropolitan transportation authority (LACMTA) and south-eastern Pennsylvania transportation authority (SEPTA), are considering electric propulsion system of buses, as a dominant factor behind new purchase.
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