RIVERSIDE, Calif., Sept. 30, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — (www.ucr.edu) — Despite a decidedly disappointing start to 2016, a new economic forecast for the U.S., California, and the Inland Empire takes a relatively optimistic tone, with both the state and region outperforming the nation over the next year or more.
The reason behind the outlook’s optimism, say the authors, is that the headwinds facing these economies are coming largely from external rather than internal sources. “Problems abroad have slowed U.S. exports and hurt commodity industries, leading to a modest decline in business investment, but steady consumer demand has more than offset that drop,” said Christopher Thornberg, one of the forecast authors. “The best news is that these drags on the economy are lessening, and that will help us regain momentum in the second half of the year.”
Key domestic indicators, including the national labor markets and median real wages, are also growing positively, said Thornberg, director of the UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting and Development, which released the forecast in conjunction with the 7th Annual Inland Empire Economic Forecast Conference.
The outlook for California and the Inland Empire is even brighter than for the U.S., according to the forecast. California’s economy is poised to outpace most other states in the nation over the next several quarters, while the Inland Empire’s robust job growth—the region has experienced the fastest rate of job gains in Southern California over the past five years—is expected to continue, driven partly by healthy population gains.
“Against a backdrop of a slower-than-usual-recovery, the California and Inland Empire economies have turned in impressive performances over the past year—and their economic engines will continue to chug along for the rest of 2016 and into 2017, outdistancing the nation,” said Robert Kleinhenz, one of the forecast authors and executive director of research at the Center for Economic Forecasting and Development.
Key Findings: United States
Key Findings: California
Key Findings: Inland Empire
The 7th Annual Inland Southern California Economic Forecast Conference was held on Sept. 29 at the Riverside Convention Center. In addition to the forecast, the event included an examination of the 2016 election in California by John Myers, Sacramento bureau chief at the Los Angeles Times, and a panel of experts who discussed what the Inland Empire will look like in 20 years and what the coming growth means for transportation, education, and health care services demand.
A copy of the forecast book can be downloaded in its entirety here.
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